Imboni: Ngenxa yomthelela wezindleko ze-US, amanani omthwalo wempahla yasolwandle ehlile

Ukuhlaziywa kwezimboni kuphakamisa ukuthi intuthuko yakamuva yenqubomgomo yezohwebo yaseMelika isiphinde yabeka uxhaxha lwempahla emhlabeni wonke esimweni esingazinzile, njengoba ukubekwa kukaMongameli uDonald Trump kanye nokumiswa kancane kwezinye izintela kudale ukuphazamiseka okukhulu nokungaqiniseki kumabhizinisi asebenza eNyakatho Melika.

Lo muzwa wokungaqiniseki usufinyelele ezilinganisweni zokuthutha eziqukathi zasolwandle, futhi ngokusho kwedatha ye-Freightos Baltic Index, amanani omthwalo weziqukathi zasolwandle awele ebuhlungwini besizini ephansi evamile ekuqaleni konyaka.

Isimemezelo sokuqala sentela engama-25% yazo zonke izimpahla ezingeniswe yi-United States zisuka e-Mexico nase-Canada sibe nomthelela omubi embonini yezokuthutha. Nokho, phakathi nezinsuku ezimbalwa, uhulumeni wakhipha umyalelo wokumiswa kwenyanga eyodwa kwemikhiqizo yezimoto ehlanganiswe yiSivumelwano sase-United States sase-Mexico Canada, kamuva esinwetshelwe kuyo yonke imikhiqizo engenisiwe ngaphansi kwesivumelwano. Lokhu kuthinta u-50% wezinto ezithengwayo ezivela e-Canada kanye nama-38% ezinto ezithengwayo ezivela e-Mexico, okuhlanganisa imikhiqizo yezimoto, ukudla nemikhiqizo yezolimo, kanye nemikhiqizo eminingi kagesi neye-elekthronikhi.

Impahla esele engenisiwe ebiza cishe isigidigidi esingu-$1 ngosuku manje isibhekene nokwenyuka kwentela ngama-25%. Lesi sigaba sihlanganisa imikhiqizo eminingi kusukela kumafoni, amakhompyutha kuya kumishini yezokwelapha. Ukuqaliswa kungazelelwe kanye nokumiswa kancane kwalezi zindleko kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezokuthutha eziwela umngcele kanye nethrafikhi yaphansi evela e-Mexico nase-Canada.

UJudah Levine, umqondisi wocwaningo kwaFreightos, ubhale embikweni okhishwe ngedatha yakamuva ukuthi le ntengo ye-tariff akuwona umcimbi ongawodwa, kodwa iyingxenye yephethini ebanzi kaTrump yokusebenzisa inqubomgomo yezohwebo njengenzuzo yokufeza izinhloso ezahlukahlukene. Kulokhu, izinhloso ezimenyezelwe zihlanganisa ukubhekana nezindaba zokuphepha emngceleni kanye nokuvimbela ukugeleza kwe-fentanyl nabafuduki abangekho emthethweni. Nokho, eminye imibiko iphakamisa ukuthi lokhu ngokwengxenye kungenxa yokuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto bathembisa ukususa ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto eCanada naseMexico bayise e-United States.

U-Levin uthe ukungaqiniseki okulethwa yilolu shintsho olusheshayo lwenqubomgomo kwenza ukuhlela nokulungiswa kwabathumbi kube inselele enkulu. Izinkampani eziningi zisebenzisa isimo sengqondo sokulinda-futhi-ukubona ngaphambi kokwenza izinguquko ezinkulu kumaketanga azo wokuhlinzeka. Kodwa-ke, ukusongelwa kokwenyuswa kwentela kuseduze, ikakhulukazi ezimpahleni ezingenisiwe ezivela e-China nakwabanye abahwebi base-US, okwenze abanye abangenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe bathumela impahla yasolwandle ngaphambi kwesikhathi esimisiwe kusukela ngoNovemba, okwandisa isidingo nezindleko zokuthumela.

Idatha yakamuva evela ku-National Retail Federation ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngoNovemba wonyaka odlule kuya kuFebhuwari kulo nyaka, umthamo wokungenisa impahla olwandle wase-US ukhuphuke cishe ngo-12% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okubonisa umphumela omkhulu wokushayela. Nakuba kulindeleke ukuthi umthamo wempahla uzohlala uqinile phakathi noMeyi, kulindeleke ukuthi umthamo wezimpahla ngoJuni noJulayi ube buthaka, okubonisa ukuqala okubuthakathaka kwenkathi yesikhathi esiphezulu ngenxa yokuthunyelwa ngaphambi kwesikhathi.

Umthelela walokhu kuguquguquka kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo uyabonakala futhi ezilinganisweni zomthwalo wamabhokisi. Ngemuva koNyaka Omusha WamaLunar, izintengo zamabhokisi e-trans Pacific ziqhubekile nokwehla, amanani ezimpahla oGwini oluseNtshonalanga ehle afinyelela ku-$2660 ngeyunithi ngayinye elingana namafidi angama-40 futhi oGwini Olusempumalanga ehle afinyelela ku-$3754 i-FEU ngayinye. Uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, lezi zinombolo zehle ngo-40% futhi zingaphansi noma kancane endaweni ephansi yango-2024 ngemva koNyaka Omusha Wenyanga.
Ngokufanayo, emasontweni asanda kwedlula, amanani entengo yempahla yasolwandle yohwebo lwase-Asia Europe nawo ehle ngaphansi kwephuzu eliphansi langonyaka odlule.

Izinga le-Asia Nordic lenyuke ngo-3% laya ku-$3064 i-FEU ngayinye. Intengo yase-Asia Mediterranean ihlala isezingeni lika-$4159 i-FEU ngayinye.

Nakuba ukukhuphuka kwezinga okuvamile ekuqaleni kukaMashi kwehlise ijubane lokhu kwehla futhi kwenyusa amanani ngamadola angamakhulu ambalwa, ukwenyuka bekungaphansi kakhulu kokukhuphuka kwama- $ 1000 okumenyezelwe opharetha. Amanani entengo esifundeni sase-Asia Mediterranean azinzile futhi acishe alingane nalawo onyaka odlule.

U-Levin uthe ubuthakathaka bakamuva bamanani ezimpahla, ikakhulukazi emizileni enqamula ePacific, kungase kube umphumela wezinto eziningi ezisebenza ndawonye. Lokhu kuhlanganisa ukumiswa kwesidingo ngemva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwamuva nje kwemifelandawonye yabasebenzisi, okuye kwaholela ekuqhudelaneni okukhulu nokuncipha kokusebenza kahle ekuphathweni kwamandla njengoba abaqhubi bezivumelanisa nezinkonzo ezisanda kwethulwa.

Njengoba imboni ibhekene nokungaqiniseki, iminqamulajuqu eminingana eyinhloko iyeza. Lokhu kubandakanya ukulalelwa kommeli wezohwebo wase-United States ngomhla zingama-24 kuNdasa, okuzokwenza isinqumo ngezindleko ezihlongozwayo zechweba; Ngokwememorandamu kaMongameli ye-"America First Trade Policy", umnqamulajuqu wokuthi ama-ejensi abike izindaba ezehlukene zezohwebo ungomhla lu-1 kuMbasa, kuyilapho umnqamulajuqu omusha wokubeka intela engu-25% ezimpahleni ze-USMCA umhla zi-2 kuMbasa.