Imboni: Ngenxa yomthelela wentela yase-US, amazinga okuthutha amakhonteyina olwandle ehlile

Ukuhlaziywa kwemboni kusikisela ukuthi intuthuko yakamuva kwinqubomgomo yezohwebo yase-US iphinde yabeka izintambo zokuhlinzeka zomhlaba wonke esimweni esingazinzile, njengoba ukubekwa kukaMongameli uDonald Trump kanye nokumiswa kancane kweminye intela kubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kanye nokungaqiniseki kwamabhizinisi asebenza eNyakatho Melika.

Lo muzwa wokungaqiniseki uye wanda wafinyelela emazingeni okuthutha izitsha zasolwandle, futhi ngokusho kwedatha yeFreightos Baltic Index, amazinga okuthutha izitsha zasolwandle awele ebuhlungwini besizini yendabuko ephansi ekuqaleni konyaka.

Isimemezelo sokuqala sentela engu-25% kuzo zonke izimpahla ezingeniswe yi-United States ezivela eMexico naseCanada saba nomthelela omubi embonini yezokuthutha. Kodwa-ke, ezinsukwini ezimbalwa nje, uhulumeni wakhipha umyalelo wokumiswa kwenyanga eyodwa kwemikhiqizo yezimoto ehlanganiswe yi-United States Mexico Canada Agreement, kamuva eyanwetshwa kuyo yonke imikhiqizo engenisiwe ngaphansi kwesivumelwano. Lokhu kuthinta u-50% wokungeniswa okuvela eCanada kanye no-38% wokungeniswa okuvela eMexico, okuhlanganisa imikhiqizo yezimoto, ukudla kanye nemikhiqizo yezolimo, kanye nemikhiqizo eminingi kagesi neye-elekthronikhi.

Izimpahla ezingenisiwe ezisele ezibiza cishe amaRandi ayizigidigidi ngosuku manje sezibhekene nokwenyuka kwentela ngo-25%. Lesi sigaba sihlanganisa imikhiqizo eminingi kusukela kumafoni, amakhompyutha kuya kumadivayisi ezokwelapha. Ukuqaliswa okungazelelwe kanye nokumiswa okwesikhashana kwalezi zindleko kwaholela ekuphazamisekeni okukhulu kwezokuthutha eziwela umngcele kanye nokuhamba komhlaba okuvela eMexico naseCanada.

UJudah Levine, umqondisi wocwaningo kwaFreightos, ubhale embikweni okhishwe ngemininingwane yakamuva ukuthi lokhu kushintsha kwentela akuyona into eyenzeka yodwa, kodwa kuyingxenye yendlela kaTrump ebanzi yokusebenzisa inqubomgomo yokuhweba njengesizathu sokufeza imigomo eyahlukene. Kulokhu, imigomo emenyezelwe ihlanganisa ukubhekana nezinkinga zokuphepha kwemingcele nokuvimbela ukugeleza kwe-fentanyl kanye nabokufika ngokungemthetho. Kodwa-ke, eminye imibiko iphakamisa ukuthi lokhu kungenxa yokuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto bathembisa ukushintsha umkhiqizo othile usuka eCanada naseMexico uye e-United States.

ULevin uthe ukungaqiniseki okubangelwa yilezi zinguquko zenqubomgomo ezisheshayo kwenza ukuhlela nokulungisa abathumeli kube nzima kakhulu. Izinkampani eziningi zithatha isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona ngaphambi kokuzibophezela ezinguqukweni ezibalulekile ezindleleni zazo zokunikezela. Kodwa-ke, usongo lokwenyuka kwentela luseduze, ikakhulukazi ezimpahleni ezingenisiwe ezivela eShayina nakwamanye abalingani bezohwebo base-US, okuye kwashukumisela abanye abathumeli ukuthi bathumele imithwalo yolwandle ngaphambi kwesikhathi esibekiwe kusukela ngoNovemba, okwandisa isidingo kanye nezindleko zokuthumela.

Idatha yakamuva evela kwiNational Retail Federation ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngoNovemba ngonyaka odlule kuya kuFebhuwari kulo nyaka, inani lokungeniswa kwempahla yasolwandle yase-US lenyuke cishe ngo-12% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okubonisa umphumela omkhulu wokushayela. Nakuba kulindeleke ukuthi inani lokuthutha lizohlala liqinile kulo lonke uMeyi, kulindeleke ukuthi inani lokuthutha ngoJuni nangoJulayi lizoncipha, okubonisa ukuqala okubuthakathaka kwesizini yendabuko ephezulu ngenxa yokuthunyelwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi.

Umthelela walokhu kushintshashintsha kwenqubomgomo yokuhweba uyabonakala nasemazingeni okuthutha ama-container. Ngemuva koNyaka Omusha WaseLunar, amanani e-trans Pacific container aqhubeka nokwehla, amazinga okuthutha eWest Coast ehla afinyelela ku-$2660 ngeyunithi elingana ne-40 foot kanye nase-East Coast ehla afinyelela ku-$3754 nge-FEU. Uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, lezi zinombolo zehle ngo-40% futhi zisezingeni eliphansi noma zingaphansi kancane kwele-2024 ngemuva koNyaka Omusha WaseLunar.
Ngokufanayo, emasontweni amuva nje, amanani entengo yokuthutha olwandle kwezohwebo lwase-Asia Europe nawo ehle ngaphansi kwesilinganiso sangonyaka odlule.

Izinga le-Asia Nordic likhuphuke ngo-3% laya ku-$3064 nge-FEU ngayinye. Intengo ye-Asia Mediterranean isalokhu isezingeni lika-$4159 nge-FEU ngayinye.

Nakuba ukwenyuka kwamanani okuvamile ekuqaleni kukaMashi kwehlise lokhu kwehla futhi kwanyusa amanani ngamadola ambalwa, ukwenyuka kwakungaphansi kakhulu kokwenyuka kwamaRandi ayi-1000 okwamenyezelwa yinkampani. Amanani esifundeni sase-Asia Mediterranean azinzile futhi acishe alingane nalawo onyaka odlule.

ULevin uthe ubuthakathaka bamuva nje emananini empahla, ikakhulukazi emizileni edlula ePacific, bungaba umphumela wezinto eziningi ezisebenzisanayo. Lokhu kufaka phakathi ukumiswa kwesidingo ngemuva koMkhosi waseNtwasahlobo, kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwamuva kwezinhlangano zabaqhubi, okuholele ekuncintisaneni okuqinile kanye nokwehla kokusebenza kahle ekuphathweni kwamandla njengoba abaqhubi bezivumelanisa nezinsizakalo ezisanda kuqaliswa.

Njengoba imboni ibhekene nokungaqiniseki, izinsuku zokugcina eziningana ezibalulekile ziyasondela. Lokhu kufaka phakathi ukulalelwa kwe-United States Trade Representative ngomhlaka-24 Mashi, okuzokwenza isinqumo ngezindleko zechweba ezihlongozwayo; Ngokusho kwememorandamu kaMongameli ethi "America First Trade Policy", isikhathi sokugcina sokuba izinhlangano zibike ngezinkinga ezahlukene zokuhweba umhlaka-1 Ephreli, kanti isikhathi sokugcina esisha sokubeka intela engu-25% ezimpahleni ze-USMCA umhlaka-2 Ephreli.